A very good essay , thank you . However , I think that you are overestimating the residual pull that the West has for Russia . Over the last 3 years Russians have had. a good look at the West . They are well aware of the rabid racism with which the Western Elite and Middle Class view them . The reply is basically loathing on their part . The biggest complaint that ordinary Russians have about their President is that he is too easy going when dealing with the West . There is still a small pro Western element but they are regarded as idiots at best . Russia's Government has been plain that relations with Europe are done for at least a Generation . Relations with the USA will be dealt with differently because it is a fellow Superpower . I imagine that the relationship will be strictly transactional .
Respectfully, I do not really agree with that. What you are talking about is the good old rational thinking. The actual deep cultural (irrational, to a point) background does not change that quickly. One would need a generation, or more, to actually change that deep inside. I grew up in late Soviet Union, lived for the first 24 years in Russia, and then for 20 years in USA. I think, I can probably judge certain things more objectively than many people back in Russia. A very deep complex inferiority complex of the sort "Here everything is always worse than there" is still present. It does not change that quickly and, again strictly in my opinion, the anecdotal evidence given by Brian is exactly to the point. Same thing in Ukraine, same background: If a westerner promises you a better life, to be in NATO, in EU, support "whatever it takes" - you believe them, on a very deep irrational level, even if you can actually calculate money it is going to take, and how much the West might be able to contribute, and the result of those calculations is not too promising. The irrational postulate "westerners are better, they are like elves, they cannot lie" is still sitting in there even if, rationally, some people start seeing the West for what it is.
I have completely the opposite experience to yours. Born in US, raised and educated in UK and past 34 years I have lived in Russia. My take on the situation is this: until Europe learns its place, which is highly unlikely in my life, admits defeat, apologises for the ridiculous russophobia (the new anti-semitism) and makes a concerted effort to really try and mend relations, Russia will not lift a finger. Europe never considered Russia an equal, let alone the US. So it will be NOT be a defrost of relations as far as I can see. West is NOT better anymore. Look at Europe today! Russia has moved on, the future is with Asia and China. Japan will bury its differences and seek to leave US, maybe Korea too, and the West will rot further until it will just be a paragraph in history books. As I write, Italians talk of 19th Sanctions Packet. So what on earth are you talking about?
What is the "new anti-semitism" to which you refer? It's the all-too common trope among genocide supporters denounce any opposition to Israel's ethnic cleansing and industrial-scale slaughter of Palestinians as "anti-semitic." Which is bogus. The protest isn't against Jews (many of the protesters are Jewish), it's against the actions of the State of Israel. Unless, of course, you consider genocide to be an inherently Jewish value - in which case, rising hatred of Jews would be a rational response on the part of sane humans.
I agree and support wholeheartedly everything you said! However, I do not see any contradiction with what I was talking about, we are just talking about different things. What I am talking about is, for example, my relatives, close and distant, my friends, schoolmates, students I went to college with, friends of my friends who, starting from 90ies and till the most recent times listened and fully supported what was coming from Эхо Москвы, Дождь, Медуза, Дудь, Собчак etc. And I am not exactly blaming these particular outlets for converting people, they exist because there is a very significant portion of people (in Russia!) who are ready to consume whatever is produced by these outlets because of the political and cultural overlap. These people are still there, most of them at least, they are perhaps not as vocal as before, because of the SMO, but they are not gone. And there is still lots of people who, on the deep irrational level, still have the mental picture of bright shiny kingdom of heaven - the West. That here (in Russia) is mud, corruption, Mordor, orcs etc, and there, in Europe, are mostly elves. All those statements about russophobia, rotting Europe etc - you can discuss it with them, sometimes even constructively, but most of these discussions are not reaching very deep, because what is in there is deep irrational love of "there" and hate of "here". And, I wanted to emphasize, these is me talking about my friends and relatives, including very close ones, and very recent (not like 5-10 years ago) interactions with them. For me, personally, this is a constant source of much bitterness, since only close relatives and friends can truly hurt you. Opinions of strangers do not hurt as much. Anyways, getting back to what you said, I agree with everything 99%. The 1% where I do not, or rather where I somewhat skeptical, is where you say "Russia will not lift a finger". To me, the correct statement would be "Russia should not lift a finger", but I am afraid that there might still be enough people back in Russia, with enough weight, to reach out to Europe whenever SMO ends, even if it might hurt the forming relationship with the Global South. That is what I am truly afraid of. Other than that, to reiterate again, I do not see much disagreement in what was said by you and me above.
Great love can easily turn into boundless hatred, Russians are now realizing that the West will never be their friend ! But back there in the foolish West, you have no idea what it's like when a Russian gets offended and starts to really hate you ! Well, they're not alone in this, because slowly the people of Central and Eastern Europe are starting to see that for the posh West, they are called to perform the duties of cleaning staff and not club membership !
However, cultural leanings - "pub talk in Moscow is still more about Real Madrid than Shanghai Port FC" - shouldn't be overstated. As a Brit, i'd like to see my country move Eastwards and BRICSwards, but i still love Country music and Westerns etc.
Alas, as a Brit, my country is on the US Titanic whether I like it or not.
Thank you! A very stark resumé of how we got to where we are today. But you overestimate the possibility that Russia would come back to Europe. That option, IMO, is totally dead in the water. The russophobic mood, headed by UK and then EU commission, together with ridiculous optics of the Baltics and others, and the attempt to cancel Russia in sport, culture, etc. means that even if peace were to come tomorrow, there will be NO entente from the Russian side at all. Sure, Russians will travel to Europe as they did before, but in terms of relations between countries it will not come back for decades. And this is Europe's fault.
So the attitude in Moscow now is "well, ok, Europe can go to hell." And it will, be sure of this. Russia did NOT start this, but it will end it once and for all. The west cannot admit defeat and certainly won't apologise. Russia is already over that, but never think that this can be clawed back to Europe's advantage. You caused so much damage to new-born Russian Federation, that this will never come back. I wish Europe the best of luck in its new role of "irrelevance". Russia will now foster relations with separate countries and totally disregard the EU in every possible way. That will be chilling for Europe and it deserves the impending collapse.
Great read and walk through geopolitical memory lane.
Iran and China don't have the romance traditionally associated with the West but the East is increasingly where the money is at. The flow of money coming from the East is more dependable too.
While the East is growing, the West is sinking and descending into eternal conflicts.
But the idea of Russia aligning with the West is a moot issue no matter the appeal it might still have with some Russians. Powerful Jews still hate the Tsar and the empire still needs an enemy. Even Europe doesn't seem dumb enough to completely alienate China and its market so that leaves Russia to be the boogeyman.
"When a nation stays neutral, it's a sovereign country with free will, but when it joins a military block like NATO, it becomes an army base of an over-ambitious superpower that wants to control world order."
- Mohammed Zaki Ansari
"Keep the Soviets out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"
-"Lord" Ismay, First NATO Secretary, 1946
"The problem with NATO is that Americans don't live in Europe, and Great Britain is an island"
-Charles de Gaulle
"NATO is a global intervention force run by the United States."
-Noam Chomsky
"I think this is the beginning of the new cold war. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves"
-George F. Kennan on NATO expansion, 1997
"NATO exists to manage the risks created by its own existence"
-Prof. Richard Sakwa
"I went into the Army believing that if you want peace you must prepare for war. I now believe that if you prepare thoroughly for war you will get it."
-Sir John Frederick Maurice
"You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war."
NATO's only raison d'être was to contain the rival communist project, that was disbanded together with the USSR, so can you explain why NATO was not disbanded as well? And even expanded further east afterwards?
Did you know that in 1954 the USSR proposed that it join NATO as part of a mechanism to preserve peace in Europe? NATO turned down its request. And only AFTER that In 1955, the Warsaw Pact was formed in response.
Did you know that the idea of Russia’s joining NATO is actually decades old? Gorbachev proposed it in 1990, and Putin reportedly proposed it to President Clinton. Thus, the obstacle to Russia’s membership in NATO appears to be NATO:
Let me quote Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ex-Director of Policy Planning in the Bush/Powell State Department:
"it would impair the continuing military effectiveness of NATO, that Russia, essentially as an insider, would become obstructive and would work against NATO’s continuing viability."
Certainly, with Russia inside, it would be better as an instrument of peace in Europe. But it would be useless as an instrument for the US to dominate Europe. Refusal of membership to Russia is simply another way of saying that NATO is not a means to ensure peace in Europe.
So you probably don't need to be a geopolitical genius to understand that if there is a MILITARY alliance closing in to your borders and surrounding you, joining all other countries EXCEPT yours, this alliance is obviously built against YOU..
NATO is just a continuation of the Mackinder project. And as Brian points out, a gigantic cashcow for the MIC.
But the Richard Haass quote above is interesting, and still pertinent. "Russia, essentially as an insider, would become obstructive". Well yes. Because the main reason why some in the US would like Russia onboard would be to go after China.
Under Clinton, when the Cold war was over, Lockheed Martin's guy named Bruce P. Jackson (son of William Jackson, National Security Adviser under Eisenhower) spent millions of dollars on the committee for NATO expansion in order to push a bunch of Eastern European countries into NATO.
BTW, the same guy bankrolled the committee for the war in Iraq.
What a wonderful service you’ve provided to people who thought they knew what the MIC was up to, and now know that they know, short of dotting every ‘i’ and crossing every ‘t’. Thanks for a terrific read.
Caveat to my comment: I haven’t been in Russia since 2019.
Moscow and Petersburg are not all of Russia, and I wonder how this all plays out in places like Novosibirsk or Irkutsk, places geographically remote from the west which have always had much less interaction with westerners. Perhaps the anecdotes be different. Also, in my experience in Siberia I found a pervasive anti Chinese sentiment, and it came up regularly in casual conversation. I wonder how this will all play out.
A very good essay , thank you . However , I think that you are overestimating the residual pull that the West has for Russia . Over the last 3 years Russians have had. a good look at the West . They are well aware of the rabid racism with which the Western Elite and Middle Class view them . The reply is basically loathing on their part . The biggest complaint that ordinary Russians have about their President is that he is too easy going when dealing with the West . There is still a small pro Western element but they are regarded as idiots at best . Russia's Government has been plain that relations with Europe are done for at least a Generation . Relations with the USA will be dealt with differently because it is a fellow Superpower . I imagine that the relationship will be strictly transactional .
Respectfully, I do not really agree with that. What you are talking about is the good old rational thinking. The actual deep cultural (irrational, to a point) background does not change that quickly. One would need a generation, or more, to actually change that deep inside. I grew up in late Soviet Union, lived for the first 24 years in Russia, and then for 20 years in USA. I think, I can probably judge certain things more objectively than many people back in Russia. A very deep complex inferiority complex of the sort "Here everything is always worse than there" is still present. It does not change that quickly and, again strictly in my opinion, the anecdotal evidence given by Brian is exactly to the point. Same thing in Ukraine, same background: If a westerner promises you a better life, to be in NATO, in EU, support "whatever it takes" - you believe them, on a very deep irrational level, even if you can actually calculate money it is going to take, and how much the West might be able to contribute, and the result of those calculations is not too promising. The irrational postulate "westerners are better, they are like elves, they cannot lie" is still sitting in there even if, rationally, some people start seeing the West for what it is.
I have completely the opposite experience to yours. Born in US, raised and educated in UK and past 34 years I have lived in Russia. My take on the situation is this: until Europe learns its place, which is highly unlikely in my life, admits defeat, apologises for the ridiculous russophobia (the new anti-semitism) and makes a concerted effort to really try and mend relations, Russia will not lift a finger. Europe never considered Russia an equal, let alone the US. So it will be NOT be a defrost of relations as far as I can see. West is NOT better anymore. Look at Europe today! Russia has moved on, the future is with Asia and China. Japan will bury its differences and seek to leave US, maybe Korea too, and the West will rot further until it will just be a paragraph in history books. As I write, Italians talk of 19th Sanctions Packet. So what on earth are you talking about?
What is the "new anti-semitism" to which you refer? It's the all-too common trope among genocide supporters denounce any opposition to Israel's ethnic cleansing and industrial-scale slaughter of Palestinians as "anti-semitic." Which is bogus. The protest isn't against Jews (many of the protesters are Jewish), it's against the actions of the State of Israel. Unless, of course, you consider genocide to be an inherently Jewish value - in which case, rising hatred of Jews would be a rational response on the part of sane humans.
I agree and support wholeheartedly everything you said! However, I do not see any contradiction with what I was talking about, we are just talking about different things. What I am talking about is, for example, my relatives, close and distant, my friends, schoolmates, students I went to college with, friends of my friends who, starting from 90ies and till the most recent times listened and fully supported what was coming from Эхо Москвы, Дождь, Медуза, Дудь, Собчак etc. And I am not exactly blaming these particular outlets for converting people, they exist because there is a very significant portion of people (in Russia!) who are ready to consume whatever is produced by these outlets because of the political and cultural overlap. These people are still there, most of them at least, they are perhaps not as vocal as before, because of the SMO, but they are not gone. And there is still lots of people who, on the deep irrational level, still have the mental picture of bright shiny kingdom of heaven - the West. That here (in Russia) is mud, corruption, Mordor, orcs etc, and there, in Europe, are mostly elves. All those statements about russophobia, rotting Europe etc - you can discuss it with them, sometimes even constructively, but most of these discussions are not reaching very deep, because what is in there is deep irrational love of "there" and hate of "here". And, I wanted to emphasize, these is me talking about my friends and relatives, including very close ones, and very recent (not like 5-10 years ago) interactions with them. For me, personally, this is a constant source of much bitterness, since only close relatives and friends can truly hurt you. Opinions of strangers do not hurt as much. Anyways, getting back to what you said, I agree with everything 99%. The 1% where I do not, or rather where I somewhat skeptical, is where you say "Russia will not lift a finger". To me, the correct statement would be "Russia should not lift a finger", but I am afraid that there might still be enough people back in Russia, with enough weight, to reach out to Europe whenever SMO ends, even if it might hurt the forming relationship with the Global South. That is what I am truly afraid of. Other than that, to reiterate again, I do not see much disagreement in what was said by you and me above.
Great love can easily turn into boundless hatred, Russians are now realizing that the West will never be their friend ! But back there in the foolish West, you have no idea what it's like when a Russian gets offended and starts to really hate you ! Well, they're not alone in this, because slowly the people of Central and Eastern Europe are starting to see that for the posh West, they are called to perform the duties of cleaning staff and not club membership !
Another good piece. And spot on.
However, cultural leanings - "pub talk in Moscow is still more about Real Madrid than Shanghai Port FC" - shouldn't be overstated. As a Brit, i'd like to see my country move Eastwards and BRICSwards, but i still love Country music and Westerns etc.
Alas, as a Brit, my country is on the US Titanic whether I like it or not.
Thank you! A very stark resumé of how we got to where we are today. But you overestimate the possibility that Russia would come back to Europe. That option, IMO, is totally dead in the water. The russophobic mood, headed by UK and then EU commission, together with ridiculous optics of the Baltics and others, and the attempt to cancel Russia in sport, culture, etc. means that even if peace were to come tomorrow, there will be NO entente from the Russian side at all. Sure, Russians will travel to Europe as they did before, but in terms of relations between countries it will not come back for decades. And this is Europe's fault.
So the attitude in Moscow now is "well, ok, Europe can go to hell." And it will, be sure of this. Russia did NOT start this, but it will end it once and for all. The west cannot admit defeat and certainly won't apologise. Russia is already over that, but never think that this can be clawed back to Europe's advantage. You caused so much damage to new-born Russian Federation, that this will never come back. I wish Europe the best of luck in its new role of "irrelevance". Russia will now foster relations with separate countries and totally disregard the EU in every possible way. That will be chilling for Europe and it deserves the impending collapse.
Great read and walk through geopolitical memory lane.
Iran and China don't have the romance traditionally associated with the West but the East is increasingly where the money is at. The flow of money coming from the East is more dependable too.
While the East is growing, the West is sinking and descending into eternal conflicts.
But the idea of Russia aligning with the West is a moot issue no matter the appeal it might still have with some Russians. Powerful Jews still hate the Tsar and the empire still needs an enemy. Even Europe doesn't seem dumb enough to completely alienate China and its market so that leaves Russia to be the boogeyman.
"When a nation stays neutral, it's a sovereign country with free will, but when it joins a military block like NATO, it becomes an army base of an over-ambitious superpower that wants to control world order."
- Mohammed Zaki Ansari
"Keep the Soviets out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"
-"Lord" Ismay, First NATO Secretary, 1946
"The problem with NATO is that Americans don't live in Europe, and Great Britain is an island"
-Charles de Gaulle
"NATO is a global intervention force run by the United States."
-Noam Chomsky
"I think this is the beginning of the new cold war. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves"
-George F. Kennan on NATO expansion, 1997
"NATO exists to manage the risks created by its own existence"
-Prof. Richard Sakwa
"I went into the Army believing that if you want peace you must prepare for war. I now believe that if you prepare thoroughly for war you will get it."
-Sir John Frederick Maurice
"You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war."
-Albert Einstein
That's why NATO sucks..
NATO's only raison d'être was to contain the rival communist project, that was disbanded together with the USSR, so can you explain why NATO was not disbanded as well? And even expanded further east afterwards?
youtu.be/9mKbu66tgpY?t=516
Did you know that in 1954 the USSR proposed that it join NATO as part of a mechanism to preserve peace in Europe? NATO turned down its request. And only AFTER that In 1955, the Warsaw Pact was formed in response.
Did you know that the idea of Russia’s joining NATO is actually decades old? Gorbachev proposed it in 1990, and Putin reportedly proposed it to President Clinton. Thus, the obstacle to Russia’s membership in NATO appears to be NATO:
thehill.com/opinion/national-security/591036-invite-russia-to-join-nato/
Here's a good article for you: "Why NATO Has Not Permitted Russia to Join"
www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/19/why-nato-has-not-permitted-russia-to-join/
Let me quote Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ex-Director of Policy Planning in the Bush/Powell State Department:
"it would impair the continuing military effectiveness of NATO, that Russia, essentially as an insider, would become obstructive and would work against NATO’s continuing viability."
Certainly, with Russia inside, it would be better as an instrument of peace in Europe. But it would be useless as an instrument for the US to dominate Europe. Refusal of membership to Russia is simply another way of saying that NATO is not a means to ensure peace in Europe.
So you probably don't need to be a geopolitical genius to understand that if there is a MILITARY alliance closing in to your borders and surrounding you, joining all other countries EXCEPT yours, this alliance is obviously built against YOU..
NATO is just a continuation of the Mackinder project. And as Brian points out, a gigantic cashcow for the MIC.
But the Richard Haass quote above is interesting, and still pertinent. "Russia, essentially as an insider, would become obstructive". Well yes. Because the main reason why some in the US would like Russia onboard would be to go after China.
How Nazi War Criminals Became High Ranking Commanders In NATO After WW2:
global-politics.eu/nazi-war-criminals-became-high-ranking-commanders-in-nato-after-ww2
"NATO is a global intervention force run by the United States."
-Noam Chomsky
Prof. Stephen F. Cohen (RIP): What NATO expansion actually means, 2010:
youtu.be/mciLyG9iexE?t=107
Forgotten History - U.S. Military Industrial Complex:
youtube.com/watch?v=y1Pz_M8eExY
The Triumph of the Military-Industrial Complex | Who Rules America:
youtube.com/watch?v=tWFjadLGkeU
Why is the US always at war?
youtube.com/watch?v=SzryRhH79Cc
youtube.com/watch?v=iLbAU3xWqW0
How 5 Companies Control the Entire U.S. Military:
youtube.com/watch?v=Rg6_tdzH6ho
youtube.com/watch?v=ZVSNF6Td3c8
"Peace is not a great business model if you sell weapons." ©
Under Clinton, when the Cold war was over, Lockheed Martin's guy named Bruce P. Jackson (son of William Jackson, National Security Adviser under Eisenhower) spent millions of dollars on the committee for NATO expansion in order to push a bunch of Eastern European countries into NATO.
BTW, the same guy bankrolled the committee for the war in Iraq.
youtube.com/watch?v=t0DLNDAgAwU
What a wonderful service you’ve provided to people who thought they knew what the MIC was up to, and now know that they know, short of dotting every ‘i’ and crossing every ‘t’. Thanks for a terrific read.
Caveat to my comment: I haven’t been in Russia since 2019.
Moscow and Petersburg are not all of Russia, and I wonder how this all plays out in places like Novosibirsk or Irkutsk, places geographically remote from the west which have always had much less interaction with westerners. Perhaps the anecdotes be different. Also, in my experience in Siberia I found a pervasive anti Chinese sentiment, and it came up regularly in casual conversation. I wonder how this will all play out.