We European citizens would never, ever voluntarily elect the group of idiots that the City of London bankers put on our necks ! There have never been such stupid people in the European leadership and in the leadership of Western European + Scandinavian countries, now I would not even mention the group of Baltic countries, because I do not waste words on them ! Where are the families that raised such high-profile politicians as Giscard D'Estaing, Pompidou, Urhho Kekkonen, Chancellor Kohl, Adeanuer etc.? Or is the main consideration now low IQ, a tendency to treason, evil, pedophilia and blackmail for committed but covered up crimes ? Whoever placed Kaja Kallas, von der Leyen and her associates in their high positions committed a crime against humanity !
I love how this article is written. Simple, flowing grammar sprinkled with beautiful analogies and idioms, making it a pleasure to read. I agree that Europe is in decline because of weak leaders who can't read the signs of the times.
i think you left one related fact-defying assumption behind.
if europe puts enough (china made) windmills and solar panels - it can address all its energy needs.
Since the media markets renewable as something that costs nothing, this narrative could make you a hero economically (you pay less for energy), ego-politically (you don't have to bend t whim of your energy provider) and environmentally (you can get a few million "likes" for the greta's of the world and hope it would translate to votes at next elections).
A thoughtful piece and very well written, however I must take issue with this classic misnomer: “The EU’s decision to tear up that balance” — Gazprom reduced gas supply to European buyers in late 2021, and turned off the taps in 2022. There is no EU ban on Russian gas, and there won’t be until at least 2027, if at all. Russia chose to turn its back on premium European markets that (ironically) forced it to reprice pipeline contracts at market rates, only for those prices to explode when Russia launched its Ukraine “special operation”. Now Gazprom is a shrivelled husk of its former self, forced to shell out a fortune to build an immense piece of infrastructure to sell the family jewels (Yamal resources) to an imperious neighbour for pennies on the euro. No price has been agreed yet, but you can bet China won’t pay more than the $5-6/MMBtu that it pays its domestic gas producers. So the big winner is China. Russia gets to paint this as a triumph while reminiscing over the golden days of Russia-German trade.
"There is no EU ban on Russian gas, and there won’t be until at least 2027, if at all..."
You really have things backward. The future "ban" on Russian gas that you reference is essentially a ban on Russian LNG (liquified natural gas), which is still being sold to European countries.
In reality, Russian pipeline gas was effectively "banned" in 2021-2 because the European countries that were consuming Russian gas were prohibited from paying in Russian rubles. As all should know, Russia's Gazprom was cut off from the Western payment systems in November 2021, and almost all of the remaining Russian banks were cut off from SWIFT in March 2022. So, regardless of not banning Russian gas, European countries refused to pay in any currency that Russia could use.
Do you think that Russians are stupid? "Give me your gas and I will give you rocks for payment..." LOL!
European (stupid) leaders thought that they could easily replace Russian pipeline gas with LNG from a variety of sources, and all would be good. Read this article to understand why that was/is folly:
You have a poor grasp of the facts. Gazprom began constraining EU gas supplies in Q2 2021. Russia was excluded from SWIFT in late Feb 2022.
Using SWIFT to justify payment in roubles was deliberately misleading: Gazprombank was deliberately spared from the exclusion, precisely to avoid a situation where EU buyers couldn’t pay for their RU gas. A unilateral demand for rouble settlement was outwith the existing gas supply contracts, so EU buyers could not comply without breaching their contractual terms.
The “SWIFT excuse” was cover for a Kremlin policy designed to (1) create artificial demand for roubles (stabilising the currency after it collapsed in early March), and (2) using Europe’s gas dependence as political leverage, by testing which member states would comply and which would refuse.
"Gazprom began constraining EU gas supplies in Q2 2021. Russia was excluded from SWIFT in late Feb 2022."
You have a feeble memory. Siemens, the manufacturer, was required to perform routine maintenance on the compressors in 2021, and Siemens required that the compressors be shipped to Canada (of all places!) for the maintenance. Canada refused to ship the compressors back to Russia; therefore, the ability to deliver the gas was compromised. IOW, without compressors, nobody would have been able to deliver gas.
"A unilateral demand for rouble settlement was outwith (sic) the existing gas supply contracts, so EU buyers could not comply without breaching their contractual terms."
WOW! You are totally ignorant of contract law (among other things). If both parties to a contract agree to a change in terms, it is merely a matter of amendment. Sheesh, what idiocy!
"The “SWIFT excuse” was cover for a Kremlin policy designed to (1) create artificial demand for roubles (stabilising the currency after it collapsed in early March), and (2) using Europe’s gas dependence as political leverage.."
WOW (again)! So, with Russia in total decline, the Ruble must have become worthless by now..NOT!!! Your argument cannot pass the sniff test; it stinks too much.
All parties agreed to contract change? I don't recall a single EU gas buyer agreeing to that. They flatly refused to pay in roubles because it was a unilateral imposition, as is their legal right.
"Siemens, the manufacturer, was required to perform routine maintenance on the compressors in 2021." Again, your grasp of facts is poor. The Nord Stream turbine “maintenance saga” centred on summer 2022, not before. It had no bearing on prior events and does not explain Gazprom's decision to restrict flows along NS1 in 2021.
I don't understand your sarcastic point about the ruble becoming "worthless by now", but I get the gist: you think it's all the fault of EU companies and nefarious Western policymakers. In your world Gazprom is an honest broker and would have continued shipping gas to Europe regardless of events unfolding in Ukraine, despite the mountain of facts to the contrary. Yeah, sure. I have a good sense of smell too, and I need a breath of fresh air after reading all that. Ciao!
We European citizens would never, ever voluntarily elect the group of idiots that the City of London bankers put on our necks ! There have never been such stupid people in the European leadership and in the leadership of Western European + Scandinavian countries, now I would not even mention the group of Baltic countries, because I do not waste words on them ! Where are the families that raised such high-profile politicians as Giscard D'Estaing, Pompidou, Urhho Kekkonen, Chancellor Kohl, Adeanuer etc.? Or is the main consideration now low IQ, a tendency to treason, evil, pedophilia and blackmail for committed but covered up crimes ? Whoever placed Kaja Kallas, von der Leyen and her associates in their high positions committed a crime against humanity !
I love how this article is written. Simple, flowing grammar sprinkled with beautiful analogies and idioms, making it a pleasure to read. I agree that Europe is in decline because of weak leaders who can't read the signs of the times.
great read.
i think you left one related fact-defying assumption behind.
if europe puts enough (china made) windmills and solar panels - it can address all its energy needs.
Since the media markets renewable as something that costs nothing, this narrative could make you a hero economically (you pay less for energy), ego-politically (you don't have to bend t whim of your energy provider) and environmentally (you can get a few million "likes" for the greta's of the world and hope it would translate to votes at next elections).
Great piece!
I read the articles but even in my elder years, I love cartoons.
That image of the NordStream pipeline? Brilliant! There is so much that can be teased out of that!
Thank you for the work!
Keep safe and be well.
A thoughtful piece and very well written, however I must take issue with this classic misnomer: “The EU’s decision to tear up that balance” — Gazprom reduced gas supply to European buyers in late 2021, and turned off the taps in 2022. There is no EU ban on Russian gas, and there won’t be until at least 2027, if at all. Russia chose to turn its back on premium European markets that (ironically) forced it to reprice pipeline contracts at market rates, only for those prices to explode when Russia launched its Ukraine “special operation”. Now Gazprom is a shrivelled husk of its former self, forced to shell out a fortune to build an immense piece of infrastructure to sell the family jewels (Yamal resources) to an imperious neighbour for pennies on the euro. No price has been agreed yet, but you can bet China won’t pay more than the $5-6/MMBtu that it pays its domestic gas producers. So the big winner is China. Russia gets to paint this as a triumph while reminiscing over the golden days of Russia-German trade.
"There is no EU ban on Russian gas, and there won’t be until at least 2027, if at all..."
You really have things backward. The future "ban" on Russian gas that you reference is essentially a ban on Russian LNG (liquified natural gas), which is still being sold to European countries.
In reality, Russian pipeline gas was effectively "banned" in 2021-2 because the European countries that were consuming Russian gas were prohibited from paying in Russian rubles. As all should know, Russia's Gazprom was cut off from the Western payment systems in November 2021, and almost all of the remaining Russian banks were cut off from SWIFT in March 2022. So, regardless of not banning Russian gas, European countries refused to pay in any currency that Russia could use.
Do you think that Russians are stupid? "Give me your gas and I will give you rocks for payment..." LOL!
European (stupid) leaders thought that they could easily replace Russian pipeline gas with LNG from a variety of sources, and all would be good. Read this article to understand why that was/is folly:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/natural-gas
You have a poor grasp of the facts. Gazprom began constraining EU gas supplies in Q2 2021. Russia was excluded from SWIFT in late Feb 2022.
Using SWIFT to justify payment in roubles was deliberately misleading: Gazprombank was deliberately spared from the exclusion, precisely to avoid a situation where EU buyers couldn’t pay for their RU gas. A unilateral demand for rouble settlement was outwith the existing gas supply contracts, so EU buyers could not comply without breaching their contractual terms.
The “SWIFT excuse” was cover for a Kremlin policy designed to (1) create artificial demand for roubles (stabilising the currency after it collapsed in early March), and (2) using Europe’s gas dependence as political leverage, by testing which member states would comply and which would refuse.
"Gazprom began constraining EU gas supplies in Q2 2021. Russia was excluded from SWIFT in late Feb 2022."
You have a feeble memory. Siemens, the manufacturer, was required to perform routine maintenance on the compressors in 2021, and Siemens required that the compressors be shipped to Canada (of all places!) for the maintenance. Canada refused to ship the compressors back to Russia; therefore, the ability to deliver the gas was compromised. IOW, without compressors, nobody would have been able to deliver gas.
"A unilateral demand for rouble settlement was outwith (sic) the existing gas supply contracts, so EU buyers could not comply without breaching their contractual terms."
WOW! You are totally ignorant of contract law (among other things). If both parties to a contract agree to a change in terms, it is merely a matter of amendment. Sheesh, what idiocy!
"The “SWIFT excuse” was cover for a Kremlin policy designed to (1) create artificial demand for roubles (stabilising the currency after it collapsed in early March), and (2) using Europe’s gas dependence as political leverage.."
WOW (again)! So, with Russia in total decline, the Ruble must have become worthless by now..NOT!!! Your argument cannot pass the sniff test; it stinks too much.
All parties agreed to contract change? I don't recall a single EU gas buyer agreeing to that. They flatly refused to pay in roubles because it was a unilateral imposition, as is their legal right.
"Siemens, the manufacturer, was required to perform routine maintenance on the compressors in 2021." Again, your grasp of facts is poor. The Nord Stream turbine “maintenance saga” centred on summer 2022, not before. It had no bearing on prior events and does not explain Gazprom's decision to restrict flows along NS1 in 2021.
I don't understand your sarcastic point about the ruble becoming "worthless by now", but I get the gist: you think it's all the fault of EU companies and nefarious Western policymakers. In your world Gazprom is an honest broker and would have continued shipping gas to Europe regardless of events unfolding in Ukraine, despite the mountain of facts to the contrary. Yeah, sure. I have a good sense of smell too, and I need a breath of fresh air after reading all that. Ciao!
LOL!